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Webpage Info for: Peak-Oil
Threatening storm clouds are looming; Can we make the changes necessary to avoid social and economic collapse?

© 2008 Bernie Slepkov (All Rights Reserved)

January 3rd, 2008 was the publication of my third St. Catharines Standard Niagara Voices column. The same day paper headlines proclaimed the price of oil reaching the $100 mark, I express my concerns over the affects of an end to cheap fossils fuels on the Niagara Region and our economies.

(Disclaimer: I apologize for any links within any of my websites which may have become inactive over time.)
 

Despite my wishes for a happy, prosperous New Year, those damn gathering storms threatening social, economical and ecological collapse § loom so large.

Even if we did expect such events to befall us, how will we weather them? We resist change most when it means sacrificing convenience and comfort, and it is never easy imagining daily lives not yet lived.

In 1996 I started encouraging Niagara to lead rather than follow societal change by pursuing sustainability § as a comprehensive strategy for regional renewal. Baby-stepping our way towards defining and integrating sustainability into our daily lives was not what I intended. And now an impending end to cheap and plentiful petroleum - termed "peak oil" § Δ - could find us either missing grander opportunities for economic renewal or insufficiently prepared for its advent.

Very few communities, like Vancouver and Curitiba, Brazil, having earlier taken on sustainability, are today's leaders in instituting profound change. Unlike us, they have begun benefiting from shifting mindsets, lifestyles and political priorities. Escalating societal demands for sustainable practices only serve to strengthen their convictions of being firmly on track. Today their newly-honed planning skills are easily directed towards preparing their communities for the consequences of peak oil. § Δ

The immediate societal consequences resulting from peak oil's collision with those threatening storms could in fact be disguised blessings. They will vastly contribute to reducing carbon emissions, and the increased unavailability and expense of oil will force us into sustainable living.

The sudden interruption of oil supply and production resulting from hurricanes Katrina and Rita in September 2005 uncovered alarming economic vulnerabilities. According to peaknik.blogspot.com, prices for oil-based resins needed for plastics immediately jumped 20-30 per cent, affecting prices on everything from public works to grocery store shelves. "Act-of-God" clauses permitted Gulf-area resin producers to cancel contracts. Dow Chemical alone cancelled more than 1,000 contracts - Rubbermaid and Clorox being among them. Almost everything we produce, consume, build, maintain, import, export, buy, sell, eat, drink, prescribe, wear, view, hear, touch, read, ride, drive, drive on and waste needs oil from start to finish. Historically we allowed those petroleum-bound activities to degrade our life-essential resources of water, soil and air. Like die-hard addicts, we chose words over determination in overcoming our oil addictions. But due to oil's comprehensive role in everyday life, we can soon expect to suffer withdrawal symptoms. Consider the following: The climate change scare is already spurring on widespread efforts to mitigate carbon emissions. Those initiatives will soon affect us all.

 

[ Peak-Oil ~ Continued below ]

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Peak-Oil [Continued]

Erratic weather patterns have been devastating supplies of imported foodstuff and intensified calls for replacing fossil fuels with biofuels § have begun affecting food prices. Meanwhile, our capacity for agricultural self-sufficiency has gradually been dismantled.

Inflation-adjusted U.S. oil prices per barrel have climbed more than 300 per cent since September 2003. Continued increasing demands for decreasing oil supplies will mean higher prices on everything but wages.

It currently takes just less than one barrel of oil to produce a barrel, while one unit of oil cannot yet produce one unit of alternative fuel.

It could take years before technology comes even close to filling oil's current energy and raw material demands.

All this raises some thought-provoking questions.

Are you aware of how much of our basic food supplies, although labelled "made in Canada," is actually imported? How soon before all these, if even available, become too expensive for most Niagarans to purchase?

How will peak oil affect our education, industry, tourism and retail sectors? What about household, business and municipal operating budgets? Where are your daily wants, must-haves and need-to-get-tos located? Should our regional and municipal economic focus be on growth or stability?

Oh that I had the space to convince you of the myriad opportunities these threats actually mean for regions such as Niagara. Instead I'll make a politically charged statement to hopefully incite a much-needed debate.

Last year, ignoring public concerns, Premier Dalton McGuinty earmarked $40 billion for increasing Ontario's nuclear capacity. Few regions will actually benefit economically from this promise.

A 2004 Danish report (www.renewables2004.de/pdf/tbp/TBP01-rationale.pdf) claims that alternative energies § create upwards of 1,400 more jobs per year per terawatt-hour than conventional energies, including nuclear. § Given the moral imperatives not to unduly strap future generations with our financial and environmental burdens; and given our province-wide need for agricultural and industrial renewal, $40 billion represents a formidable war chest of diversified strategies that could be used against the dark Trojan Horse standing in our midst.

Secure as we might feel within our economically-fortified walls, when that horse's belly releases its hell storm of fury, we could find ourselves pressed up hard against those walls.
 

(A mindmap for some of the areas of society impacted by peak oil is available at my website at http://for-legacies-sake.ca/mindmaps/peakoil-areas-of-impact.php )

Bernie Slepkov is a community activist, council-watcher and observer/participant of the Smarter Niagara steering committee. He is a member of the Standard's community editorial board.

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